Happy weekend fight fans! We are coming off a successful weekend in New York for UFC 295, after 2 out of my 3 bets on last weekends card CASHED! If I had known ahead of time that Mackenzie Dern was no longer working with Jason Parillo for her stand up game, I would have left that fight well alone. But it is what it is. It happens. To be fair to Andrade, she was much improved from her last few fights, and seems to have the fire back in her belly. But still a very successful card with the wins for Jared Gordon and Alex Pereira.
Now, this weekend. 1st up, tonight we have Bellator 301 from Chicago.
BET 1 – RAUFEON STOTS V DANNY SABATELLO – Take Stots to win @ 11/10, +110 USA.
I nearly fell off my chair when I saw this betting line. I aren’t really show what the bookies are seeing here that I aren’t, but I expected Stots to be the betting favourite here. All i can think, is that they feel that the KO loss to Patchy Mix last time out, as been a factor for Stots here. But in the same breath Sabatello is coming off a 1st round submission loss last time out, to Magomed Magomedov. Somebody Stots beat by UD back in 2021. Then throw on the fire that Stots also holds a win over Sabatello and you can kind of see my thinking here. Now MMA math doesn’t always play out like that. But overall I just think Stots has the better all-round game. Id give him the edge in the striking, both guys can wrestle, and its close in the submission stakes should that come up. Its a pick’em fight, so just take the plus money on Stots and thank me later. Your welcome.
BET 2 – BANK BUILDER PARLAY – Take Amosov, Shabliy, Mix & AJ Mckee Jr all to win @ 2/1, +200 USA.
So we have something a little different for Bet 2 on the Bellator card. Now this play will not make you rich, but is a nice solid safe play that will certainly increase your bank balance a bit. If i was going to pick 1 of the 4 fighters to cost us here, I would maybe say AJ Mckee now he’s up at 155. But i still think he will have far to much for Sidney Outlaw. The other 3 certainly won’t be losing. If any of them do Ill let 1 of the other MMA UK staff pick my twitter avatar for next week. Whatever they want! Amosov & Shabliy are elite, and my boy Patchy Mix is arguably 1 of the best 135 fighters in the world right now behind Suga Sean, Merab & Sterling. If you don’t like free money you can of course decide not to take this play. But wouldn’t that just be stupid? Again, thank me later.
BOOM! An just like that its over to Las Vegas and The Apex for the UFC card.
BET 3 – BRENDAN ALLEN V PAUL CRAIG – Take Paul Craig to win @ 100/30, +333.
Right if this fight was at 205 where Craig used to campaign, then no way are the odds this wide on this matchup. I don’t dislike Brendan Allen at all. He’s highly skilled with some solid wins under his belt. But the only reason he is such a big favourite here is the weight (185). Paul Craig has better BJJ and striking than Allen, plus at the lower weight he actually isn’t going to be the smaller guy. I’m struggling to find reasons to take Allen as such a big favourite. His hairstyle maybe? Crazy. So at these odds I will happily sprinkle on Craig. Ill probably take Craig via KO at a HUGE 10/1 (+1000) too. The popular play will be Craig via submission, but call it a Mystic Mac style hunch, I see the Paul Craig KO via ground & pound incoming. Bring it home for us BRAVEHEART!
BET 4 – DO THE DOUBLE! – Take Chase Hooper & Amanda Ribas to win @ EVENS, +100 USA.
I have gone with a little double up parlay for the final bet of the article. I would play them both as singles without any problem to. But I have combined them as I just think they are such solid bets to get a overall EVEN MONEY price. Chase has looked good recently in his move up to 155, and he has a significant advantage in the striking against Jordan Leavitt, whilst the wrestling is going to be pretty even. Chase has filled out a bit body wise too, add in the fact the Jordan’s wife is just about to give birth and is ready to pop! It just all stacks up nicely for Chase to get the W. As for Amanda Ribas, I’m picking her because she’s HOT. That’s it. Its my only reason. Kidding. Pinheiro has a stand up game, but boy does she suck at defending takedowns. So eventually if Ribas feels that she is at a disadvantage in the stand up, she has the simple task of taking Pinheiro down, and on the ground Ribas is light years ahead. It would be like me grappling with Charles Oliveira. Well not quite. But Ribas has the skills to control her on the ground, and either get a decision win or hunt down the submission. Think I’m wrong? Take 1 of the other 2 losers then. Ill be over here counting my money.
Please gamble responsibly.
@TheGooseMMA – Twitter/X.