At UFC 318 we will see the third and final showdown between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. Two veterans of the game with a long history in the UFC, this fight not only welcomes Max in his permanent move up to lightweight, but serves as the last show for the due-to-retire Poirier. With Poirier already holding two wins over him, this fight will reveal whether Max can finally get one back — or if history repeats itself with a second 0-3 run against the same man.
This might be my first truly unbiased article because I can not bear to see either man lose.
History
Holloway v Poirier 1 was a different fight from a different time, 20 and 23 years old, both on their first and fourth UFC bouts respectively, the two kids you see darting at each other from each end of the cage with straight shots and naked open side kicks are a far cry from the two men we’ll see in the cage in July. Although the aggressive volume punching and distance management from Max shows much of what he is so good at today, the patented in your face shoulder roll boxing we expect from Dustin is nowhere to be seen in this fight. I would bet good money this fight doesn’t end in another Poirier submission win via armbar but I guess it is MMA so you never know.
In Holloway v Poirier 2, a lot of what lost Max that fight was how he moved in response to Dustin’s combinations. Too often he would either stand still and roll with the punches or move back on a straight line, which is particularly dangerous against a big hitter like Dustin who loves to shift while attacking, meaning he can cover the same distance quicker than Max can, whilst keeping himself in good position to throw. Even if your opponent circles slightly while backing up, the way shifting works means it’s easy to follow the opponent round, and as you change stances they will eventually end up circling into your open side, leaving themselves open to heavier attacks. Every time Max got hurt in this fight it was like this, and I think the only reason he didn’t get finished is that his lateral movement is so good once he’s against the cage. Also Max’s unbelievable cardio, peppering body shots and sheer number of punches thrown helped slow Dustin down, which levelled things out around the end of the third round.
Keys to victory
Now there have been a few big changes since this fight. The biggest, of course, is that Max was knocked out for the first time in his last fight, which can certainly play a factor in a fight that will likely be a bit of a slugfest. Dustin was also knocked out less than two years ago, but somehow that never seems to affect him, as he has three knockout losses but has never lost two fights in a row. This also could be something to note for the more mystically inclined pickers, as he is coming off a loss to Islam Makhachev back in June last year. Both fighters have improved since this bout. For starters Max’s defensive angle changes before he gets to the cage wall did look sharper against both Gaethje and Topuria, which ironically had him looking like more of a “Matador” and Ilia the bull. He did get caught more often in these sequences against Ilia, but that’s going to happen against such a technical boxer, and as good as Dustin’s boxing is, he’s a brawler at heart, so if Max can make him tired like he did in their last bout, I think the later rounds will be his easily. More attentive footwork and body punching are Max’s keys to victory here.
For Dustin to win, he needs to keep patient picking his shots, but remember to throw first. Where many have gone wrong in the past is sitting out of range against Max and waiting for him to throw so they can counter. I suppose his output is so high that most people figure trying to engage more often with him would be madness. The problem with this is they let Max dictate the pace, and therefore take more of a reactive role which tires you out way quicker. Once you let Max build his momentum here, it becomes harder and harder to change. Max also has the chin and cardio to not be easily deterred by a couple well placed counters. Despite the old adage of “box a fighter, and fight a boxer”, a lot of the time the best way to beat a pressure fighter is to stand in front of him and put the pressure on him. The best way to beat any man is to take him out of his game.
This is more than just a fight, It’s two men with nothing left to prove. A farewell and a new beginning. Both men have cemented their legacy in the sport and will forever hold an important place in its history, regardless of the outcome here. My prediction is a Unanimous draw, a prediction based in hope and borderline delusion, but one made from the heart none the less. Bless.
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