On June 28th, 2025, at UFC 317 from the T Mobile arena, in Las Vegas, Nevada. We will be spectators to an exceptional event taking place between all the fighters on the card. UFC 317 is highlighted by Ilia Topuria’s recent commitment to the lightweight division, and he will be taking on the former lightweight champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira for Islam Makhachev’s vacant belt.
Islam Makhachev is speculated to face off against Jack Della Maddalena for his Welterweight title. With Islam and Ilia’s recent moves, it’s opened the door for some exciting fresh matchups. As of now, Charles versus Ilia is what will be the focus since this super fight is officially booked.
Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria have long been known as entertaining fighters with action packed abilities and an iron will to boot. Both fighters have significant accomplishments in the sport already and will be looking to cement their legacies further. Oliveira has a chance to become a two-time lightweight champion. Ilia could join elite company by becoming a two-division champion. This fight will answer many questions we have surrounding Charles versus Ilia. Once the cage closes, lightweight will have clarity and order restored.
Fighter Profiles
Charles Oliveira: ‘Do Bronx’ is etched in UFC history with multiple records that seem impossible to break. He is regarded by many as the greatest finisher that the UFC has ever seen, with a record of 20 wins by knockout or submission (UFC, n.d). This makes Oliveira a threat in any fight.
Ilia Topuria: ‘El Matador’ is a young superstar and has established himself by defeating the two greatest featherweights in history, Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski—both by knockout. Ilia is known for his exceptional boxing, showmanship and confidence in his skillset. He is currently undefeated with a record of 16-0, with 6 KO/TKO and 8 submissions (ESPN, n.d).
Fight Dynamics
Striking: Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria are finishers. Both fighters present imminent threats and cannot take each other lightly or a hefty price will be paid on fight night. Charles’s strengths lie in his ability to throw strikes up the middle, such as teep kicks, knees in the clinch, a powerful straight right and an overall dynamic striking style. Charles is arguably more diverse than Ilia in the stand up, but his striking IQ let’s him down at times. He likes to take risks and engage in fire fights with opponents, which often results in Oliveira getting hurt or knocked down. Ilia’s technique is essentially flawless when it comes to the scientific application of Boxing in MMA. Ilia’s ability to apply methodical pressure with exceptional footwork to cut off the cage is one of the most beautiful sights in Mixed Martial arts today. He utilizes head movement, a peekaboo type guard, and body to head combinations to break down and put away opponents. Oliveira has his work cut out for him if he doesn’t make use of his massive reach and size advantage. Ilia has the advantage on paper in this department based on what we have seen from both fighters.
Grappling: While Charles and Ilia are talented strikers, their roots are in grappling. Charles Oliveira began training in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at the age of 12 (Elite Sports, n.d). Charles’s accomplishments within the cage have earned him high praise from analysts and fans as having some of the most effective BJJ techniques in UFC history. Oliveira’s Jiu-Jitsu skills shine particularly in scrambles, transition and pure offensive creativity.
Ilia Topuria is part of the newer generation of Mixed Martial Arts. He started training in Greco-Roman wrestling at the age of six before moving to Spain with his brother, Alexandre Topuria who is also a current UFC Bantamweight (Evolve MMA, 2025). Ilia Topuria was exposed to Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and MMA at around age 14. Topuria initially implemented more grappling earlier in his career before joining the UFC. From 2015 to 2019, Ilia Topuria amassed 7 straight submission victories in his pro MMA career (ESPN, n.d). Although these fights did not take place in the UFC, there is clearly an evolution and change throughout the years in Ilia’s game. Since being in the UFC, he has a record of 5 knockouts, 1 unanimous decision and 1 submission. As a pure submission artist, Charles has the advantage because he is the greatest finisher with the most submissions in history, but to get the fight to the ground will be extremely difficult. The fight will likely remain standing because Ilia will be aware of Charles’s dangerous ground game.
Experience: In some matchup’s, experience is a great asset and an interesting element. With this fight, experience won’t really be a factor in my opinion. While Charles Oliveira does have almost two decades of professional MMA experience and a total of 45 bouts. He only has gone the distance 6 times. Charles’s career is defined by finishes. Only one time in his career has he ever been to a full five round decision, and that was against Michael Chandler at UFC 309. Oliveira lives by the sword and dies by it.
Similar things could be said about Ilia when assessing his fight history. Ilia has also only completed one five round fight against Josh Emmett at a UFC fight night in their main event. The main difference I’ve observed between Ilia and Charles is that Charles has been through more adversity in his fights, especially title fights. This is more of a fight IQ issue from Charles. Neither have spent much time in the octagon to truly assess an observable gap in fight experience. Their best wins are comparable: Charles’s best wins are Dustin and Justin, while Ilia’s best wins are Max and Volk.
Conclusion
After analyzing both fighters’ overall careers, the favorite going into this fight is rightfully Ilia Topuria. Charles isn’t an elite wrestler, which will make this a stand-up fight. Ilia is extremely hard to catch cleanly on the feet as well as landing at a higher rate. The statistics prove this to be true: Ilia Topuria lands almost five strikes per minute because he is a combination puncher and Charles only lands approximately three strikes per minute (UFC, n.d). Sixty four percent of the time Ilia is able to defend opponents strikes whereas Charles is only able to successfully defend strikes forty nine percent of the time (UFC, n.d). In any major statistical category you look at, Ilia has Charles beat.
Charles is not a fighter that sticks with a game plan and loves a phone booth fight, this fight will most likely end within the first three rounds. Of course, Charles is always dangerous, but this is a bad stylistic matchup because of Ilia’s grappling competence along with his methodical pressure style of boxing. He is patient, mixes his boxing up very well and has sharp technique. Ilia has more paths to victory and has fewer notable deficiencies in his fighting style compared to Oliveira. My prediction is Ilia by an early knockout to claim his second divisional title.
References
Evolve MMA. (2025, February 16). Analyzing Ilia Topuria’s Style Of Fighting. Retrieved from https://evolve-mma.com/blog/analyzing-ilia-topurias-style-of-fighting/#:~:text=Ilia%20Topuria’s%20Background,his%20family%20moved%20to%20Spain.
Elite Sports. (n.d). A List of Interesting Charles Oliveira Facts. Retrieved from https://www.elitesports.com/blogs/news/a-list-of-interesting-charles-oliveira-facts
UFC. (n.d). Charles Oliveira Record: 35-10-0 (1 NC). Retrieved from http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/07225ba28ae309b6
ESPN. (n.d). Ilia Topuria (Lightweight) MMA Profile. Retrieved from https://www.espn.com/mma/fighter/_/id/4350812/ilia-topuria
Hannoun, F. (2025, March 27). Charles Oliveira responds to ‘very disrespectful’ Ilia Topuria amid lightweight title-shot campaign. Retrieved from Charles Oliveira responds to ‘very disrespectful’ Ilia Topuria amid lightweight title-shot campaign
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