Summer 2025 has been an interesting time for the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), particularly in the lightweight division. Islam Makhachev, the former champion, decided to make a drastic move up to the welterweight division, which resulted in him having to vacate the lightweight title. Since then, the lightweight division has introduced former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, who is now the lightweight champion.
With Topuria now holding the belt after a statement win against Charles Oliveira. A few contenders have spoken up about their desire to fight for the title — fighters such as Justin Gaethje and Arman Tsarukyan, who both have valid arguments as to why they deserve title shots. Throw Paddy Pimblett into the mix as well, with the history that he has with Ilia Topuria, and now the UFC has many directions it can go in terms of setting up and promoting a blockbuster affair.
Arman Tsarukyan has the strongest case for a shot against Ilia Topuria because of merit. He is the number one contender, and either Arman or Paddy will be Ilia’s first title defence, in my opinion. Assuming, for the sake of discussion, that Arman is fighting next for the title, it is worth analysing their attributes, skills, fight styles and experience.
Fighter Profiles
Arman Tsarukyan: The perennial lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan is a household name in the division and is currently ranked number one. Arman established himself as the number one contender after beating Charles Oliveira at UFC 300. Tsarukyan has nine wins and two losses in the lightweight division; one of his losses is to Islam Makhachev, who is considered one of the greatest fighters of all time. This loss was in Arman’s debut, and the fight demonstrated how talented a fighter he is, with many fans viewing it as one of Islam’s toughest fights. Arman mainly weaponises his elite wrestling and ground-and-pound to dominate the world’s best at 155 pounds, as well as fast striking with his hands and feet. Particularly with his kicks, Arman Tsarukyan has shown incredible dexterity.
Ilia Topuria: ‘El Matador’ is the world’s number one-ranked pound-for-pound fighter. He was the former featherweight champion and is currently the lightweight champion. Ilia is known for his exceptional boxing in mixed martial arts and is consistently regarded as the best boxer in the promotion. Ilia Topuria is establishing himself as an all-time great with three victories over quality names in the lighter weight divisions. This streak consists of champions such as Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira. Topuria has exceptional fight IQ, which is not only displayed during fights but also in his fight style evolution. Ilia began his career as a grappler with seven straight submission victories. In the UFC, Ilia has six knockouts. Very rarely do you see a fighter make a drastic change in their overall approach. His fight record provides insight into how special a fighter ‘El Matador’ is.
Fight Dynamics
Striking: This area of the fight is not as clear-cut as most would like to think. Although Ilia Topuria primarily relies on striking to put away opponents, he approaches the stand-up in a much more limited way by utilising boxing as his main approach. Arman Tsarukyan is more dynamic and is willing to mix up long-range attacks such as kicks. The striking battle will be a very telling component of this fight if it ever happens. Earning Ilia’s respect or winning exchanges on the feet against him seems like a tall proposition because we have seen opponents have success. Max Holloway is a good example of a very good fighter who manages distance well, and in theory, he seemed to have a good chance of winning against a fighter like Ilia Topuria. Ilia’s peekaboo style of boxing, in the context of MMA, draws comparisons to Mike Tyson’s style of boxing, which was designed to combat fighters who are taller and have reach advantages. Arman holds a three-inch reach advantage over Ilia, but it would be interesting to see how long Arman could keep Ilia Topuria at bay and if he would be able to earn Ilia’s respect. Topuria’s compact style of fighting, aggressive defence, and foot placement make him a hard target to hit consistently and equally challenging to avoid in the cage. The edge goes to Ilia in the striking department, and even though Arman has good weapons on the feet, he would need to remain extremely disciplined in his distance management.
Grappling: Based on what we have seen from both fighters, Arman appears to be a more explosive and dominant grappler. Ilia Topuria, in the UFC, has shown glimpses of elite grappling but has yet to face a grappler who consistently shoots takedowns, especially at 155 pounds. This raises questions about how he’d do against a fighter who looks to take the fight to the ground. Without live testing in a real fight, it is difficult to empirically determine how successful Ilia Topuria would be against a seasoned wrestler. Therefore, in my opinion, Arman Tsarukyan has the edge because he demonstrates his wrestling at the highest level at lightweight.
Experience: Both Ilia Topuria and Arman Tsarukyan are young, primed fighters at the age of 28. Arman Tsarukyan debuted in 2019, and Ilia in 2020. Their careers and physical build are very similar, which makes this fight intriguing. Ilia Topuria undoubtedly has a greater resumé when comparing the two fighters’ last five opponents. Ilia has beaten Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett, Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira (UFC, n.d). In comparison, Arman Tsarukyan’s last five resulted in a loss to Mateusz Gamrot and wins against Damir Ismagulov, Joaquim Silva, Beneil Dariush, and Charles Oliveira (UFC, n.d). Topuria has the better-quality opponents, as well as championship experience. He has three total title fight wins. In high-intensity fights, Ilia Topuria has shown time and time again that he will not only win but will do so in spectacular fashion. Ilia Topuria has the advantage in fight experience, and it is supported numerically by his impressive title-fight knockout victories. None of his title fights have made it past three rounds.
Conclusion
Overall, Ilia Topuria has more meaningful experience, impressive statistical numbers, and has faced better competition. Statistics don’t always determine how a fight will go, and that is precisely what makes a fight of this magnitude a special one. Neither fighter has faced the likes of the other, and if this fight ever gets made between Ilia Topuria and Arman Tsarukyan, the fight will not just determine a champion but will also shape the future of the lightweight division.
References
UFC. (n.d). UFC Stats Arman Tsarukyan. Stats | UFC
UFC. (n.d). UFC Stats Ilia Topuria. Stats | UFC
