When the octagon door closes at UFC 324 on 24 January, Justin Gaethje will find himself in a familiar but uncomfortable position for a former champion: the underdog. Set to face the surging Paddy Pimblett for the interim UFC lightweight title, Gaethje is leaning into a role that has historically brought out his most destructive performances.
“I love being the underdog,” Gaethje stated in the lead-up to the fight. His record supports the sentiment—statistically, Gaethje has thrived when oddsmakers and fans doubt him, winning four of his seven UFC bouts as the betting underdog. This high-stakes matchup is not just for a belt; it’s a clash of generations and styles, with the winner set to face undisputed champion Ilia Topuria upon his return.
The “Highlight” Underdog Record: A History of Defying Odds
Gaethje’s reputation as a live underdog is built on a series of stunning upsets. His most recent victory came as a significant underdog against the then-undefeated Arman Tsarukyan in 2024, a fight he won via a brutal second-round head-kick knockout. This pattern of exceeding expectations is a cornerstone of his “Highlight” persona.
His ability to win as an underdog is rooted in his high-risk, high-reward style. Gaethje’s leg kicks, crippling power in both hands, and an iron chin make him a persistent danger to any opponent, regardless of pre-fight predictions. “They count me out, and that’s when I’m at my best,” Gaethje has remarked, using the external doubt as a core psychological motivator.
Analyzing the Odds: Why Pimblett is Favored
The betting line favoring Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett reflects several key factors. Primarily, it highlights Pimblett’s undefeated UFC record (6-0) and the immense momentum behind his charismatic rise. At 30, he is also seven years younger than the 37-year-old Gaethje, suggesting a potential athleticism and recovery advantage.
Furthermore, Pimblett’s well-rounded skill set poses a unique challenge. While Gaethje is one of the most feared strikers in UFC history, Pimblett’s slick submission grappling presents a clear path to victory that other Gaethje opponents have not consistently exploited. This stylistic dynamic is a major reason bookmakers see Pimblett as the favourite.
Gaethje’s Game Plan: Confidence in Evolution
Despite the underdog tag, Gaethje enters the bout with supreme confidence, particularly in an area often seen as his weakness. “I’m going to surprise him on the ground,” Gaethje claimed, pointing to significant improvements in his jiu-jitsu training. “I’m a black belt in heart and effort, and I’ve been working my ass off on my submissions.”
His strategy will undoubtedly centre on making the fight a chaotic, standing war where his power and durability can shine. By threatening with takedown defence and potential ground surprises, Gaethje aims to neutralise Pimblett’s grappling edge and force the fight into the fire-fight conditions where “The Highlight” is most at home.
A Legacy-Defining Opportunity for Both
For Paddy Pimblett, a win catapults him from star to superstar, claiming an interim title and setting up a massive unification bout. For Justin Gaethje, this is a chance to once again defy the narrative, reclaim gold, and add another legendary chapter to a Hall of Fame-calibre career built on defying odds.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. On January 24, the underdog will look to bite back, and the favourite will face the most ferocious and experienced challenge of his young career.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Justin Gaethje the underdog against Paddy Pimblett?
Gaethje is the underdog due to Pimblett’s undefeated UFC record, younger age, and the perceived threat of his submission grappling against Gaethje’s primarily striking-based style.
What is Justin Gaethje’s record as a UFC underdog?
Gaethje has a strong record when underestimated, having won four of his seven UFC fights in which he was officially listed as the betting underdog.
What is the main event of UFC 324?
The main event of UFC 324 on 24 January is the interim lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.
How has Gaethje improved for this fight?
Gaethje has emphasised major improvements in his jiu-jitsu and ground game, stating he intends to “surprise” Pimblett with his grappling and submission defence.
Who will the winner of this fight face next?
The winner will become the interim UFC lightweight champion and is expected to face the undisputed champion, Ilia Topuria, in a title unification bout later in 2026.
