The UFC Qatar main event is a classic crossroads fight, pitting the relentless ascent of Arman Tsarukyan against the veteran resilience of Dan Hooker. For Tsarukyan, it’s a chance at redemption after a back injury forced him out of a title shot. For Hooker, it’s an opportunity to prove the old guard still has life. After breaking down the styles, here is our prediction for this pivotal lightweight clash.
Arman Tsarukyan’s Path to Redemption
Arman Tsarukyan’s journey back to contention runs directly through Dan Hooker. After the frustration of withdrawing from a promised title fight against Islam Makhachev, Tsarukyan finds himself in a must-win situation. Not only does he need to win, but a dominant performance is required to erase any doubts about his durability and reaffirm his status as the division’s top contender.
His game is built on a foundation of elite wrestling and suffocating top pressure. Since his debut, he has showcased a well-rounded skill set, but his grappling remains the key that unlocks his victories. A decisive win in Doha is the essential step to getting back what he lost: a shot at the UFC lightweight title.
Dan Hooker’s Uphill Battle
Dan Hooker faces a familiar and difficult challenge. ‘The Hangman’ is a seasoned veteran with a proven track record of thrilling fights, but he has consistently struggled against fighters who can implement a dominant grappling game plan. His recent victory over Mateusz Gamrot was impressive, but Tsarukyan represents a younger, more powerful, and arguably more complete version of that stylistic threat.
Hooker’s path to victory is narrow but clear: he must keep the fight standing at all costs. His long-range striking and ability to brawl in the pocket are his greatest assets. If he can stuff Tsarukyan’s takedowns and turn this into a kickboxing match, he can absolutely spring the upset. However, that is a monumental “if.”
Our Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Prediction
After analysing the matchup, our prediction leans heavily towards an Arman Tsarukyan victory.
The core of this prediction lies in the stylistic clash. Tsarukyan’s wrestling is not just good; it’s amongst the very best in the UFC. We expect him to consistently close the distance, negate Hooker’s 7-inch reach advantage, and secure takedowns.
While Hooker is notoriously durable and will likely survive early scares, the relentless grinding pressure will take its toll. We predict Tsarukyan will wear Hooker down against the fence and on the mat, leading to a finish in the later rounds.
Our official prediction: Arman Tsarukyan to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO in rounds 3 or 4.
The Stakes at UFC Qatar
The implications of this fight are crystal clear. For Tsarukyan, a win almost certainly earns him the next title shot against the winner of Ilia Topuria’s defences. It validates his time on the sidelines and puts him right back where he was before his injury.
For Hooker, a victory would be one of the most significant of his career, a true legacy win that would send shockwaves through the top five. A loss, however, would cement his role as a gatekeeper to the division’s elite.
Conclusion
While Dan Hooker’s heart and striking power make him a live underdog, the stylistic matchup is a nightmare for him. Arman Tsarukyan’s grappling is a force that few in the world can handle, and we do not believe Hooker has the tools to stop it over five rounds.
Look for Tsarukyan to methodically break down ‘The Hangman,’ proving his championship mettle and officially announcing his return to the title picture in the UFC Qatar main event.
