At UFC Fight Night 119 (Oct. 28), Sao Paulo, Brazil will host the return of Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida in a headlining bout versus Derek Brunson. The Sao Paulo Fight Night boasts a variety of interesting fights and important matchups. Following an 18 month suspension, Machida looks to launch himself back into the Middleweight fray where he takes on the 7th ranked Brunson in a 5 round main event. In an important Welterweight clash, Colby Covington will look to capitalise upon his current momentum by taking out recent title challenger Demian Maia. Promising Bantamweight prospect Rob Font takes on submission specialist Pedro Munhoz and two veterans collide with Francisco Trinaldo facing Jim Miller. Also on the card, deadly finishers Thiago Santos and Jack Hermansson face off, with Marlon Vera opening up the main card looking to score the upset against brick-fisted Bantamweight John Lineker. MAIN CARD Main Event: Lyoto Machida vs Derek Brunson (#7) After serving an 18 month suspension, Lyoto Machida (22-7) is making his long-awaited UFC return. After 2 years out of the sport, the former Light-heavyweight Champion will be looking to rebound after back-to-back losses, courtesy of Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero (each by way of finish). With his last victory coming in the form of a TKO finish over C.B. Dollaway in December of 2014, Machida will be desperate to get back into the winning column on Saturday evening. In the time that Machida has been out of action, Derek Brunson (17-5) has amassed 6 fights with 4 KO/TKO victories and 2 losses. After losing to Anderson Silva and Robert Whittaker, Brunson returned to form in his last outing, knocking out Dan Kelly in just over 1 minute. In his prime, this would seem like a great matchup for Machida. An opponent who is prone to rushing in, often leaving his chin exposed, would be an ideal adversary for “The Dragon” to showcase his skills. At one year shy of 40, there are questions to be asked regarding his ability to compete with the current division. Throughout Machida’s career, he has largely stayed true to his elusive counter-striking style. Circling the outside of the cage, Machida aims to bait his opponents in and catch them with kicks and blitzing strikes. I believe he will adopt a similar strategy in this fight, looking to catch Brunson as he rushes forward. As wrestler by trade, Brunson has favoured his striking in the latter half of his UFC career. An undeniably impressive streak of first round KOs has seen Brunson stray away from his traditional strengths. Despite yielding him success in many of his recent wins, Brunson’s aggressive, high-risk style was his undoing in his loss to Robert Whittaker. In Whittaker, he met a powerful and very technical striker who was able to withstand his striking onslaught and exploit his defensive porousness. I believe that if Brunson is to have success against Machida he has to revert back to his wrestling base. In his fight with Anderson Silva, Brunson looked tentative on his feet and struggled to lead the striking exchanges against a passive Silva. If he is to strike with Machida, I do not believe Brunson is technical enough to come out on top. Despite his age, Machida should still be considered a very dangerous striker. I predict that Brunson will fight smart in the first couple of rounds, staying patient and looking for takedown opportunities. However, as the fight goes on I can see Brunson straying from his initial gameplan and eventually getting caught by Machida in a striking exchange. Prediction: Lyoto Machida via 3rd round TKO. Co-main Event: Demian Maia (#3) vs Colby Covington (#8) After facing every contender that came his way, racking up 7 successive victories, Demian Maia (25-7) ultimately fell short in his quest to acquire UFC gold – losing to Welterweight champ Tyron Woodley at UFC 214. After what might have been his last chance at claiming a UFC title, Maia is not looking at slowing down. His opponent, Colby Covington (12-1), is a rising Welterweight prospect and should be considered a tough stylistic matchup for Maia due to his strong wrestling ability. Without making many friends along the way, Colby “Chaos” Covington (12-1) has established himself as a legitimate contender amongst the highly competitive UFC Welterweight division. Since his sole professional loss, Covington has racked up 4 wins in less than 1 year, beating Dong Hyun Kim by decision in his last outing. A victory over 3rd ranked Welterweight Maia could see Covington breach the top 5 of the division and put him a fight or two away from title contention. Through utilising clever trips, single-leg, and double-leg takedowns, Maia is always aiming to get the fight to the ground. For what he lacks in pure athleticism, he makes up for in a persistent determination to get the fight to the floor. Once there, Maia can begin his methodical BJJ dissection. Often one step ahead of his opponents, Demian will look towards locking up a body triangle, chipping away with strikes, and waiting for a submission opening. Despite the disparity in experience between both fighters, this may be a closer matchup than many think. In the past, Maia has struggled with his BJJ-centric gameplan against the top wrestlers of the division, such as Tyron Woodley, failing to take him down on multiple attempts. As a former NCAA Division 1 wrestler, Covington has outstanding pure wrestling ability. Covington’s game is largely based upon striking to get in range and takedowns against the fence. However, you’d have to imagine Covington changes his strategy for this fight, prioritising takedown defence and striking from the outside. You can be sure Maia and his camp will have looked very closely at Covington’s guillotine loss to Warley Alves, in which he was caught with the submission whilst attempting a takedown. In regards to their stand-up ability, both fighters are similar in that their striking is mostly a sideshow – used primarily as a means to execute
