This weekend, we have the fight between Ilia Topuria vs Charles Olivera for the vacant lightweight title. This is a particularly interesting matchup as you would be hard pressed to find any recent footage of either man taking a backwards step, meaning one or both of them will have to fight a different fight as they are used to, lest we receive the first round car crash KO im sure the UFC would love to see. Surprisingly, the biggest questions coming into this fight are actually for Charles. Of course, we’ll see how the power and chin of Topuria hold up at lightweight, but in 17 years of fighting, has Charles ever faced someone quite like Ilia?
Stylistically, there are many problems for him. Charles likes to get hit and hit back. If, and usually when he gets dropped, most opponents are too afraid of his bottom game to follow him to the ground, and so he recovers, gets up, and finds a way to finish them. Now, where Ilia differs from other boxing heavy fighters like Dustin Poirier is that his Jiu Jitsu might just be formidable enough to make it competitive on the ground too, meaning we won’t see as much body triangle from bottom mount to stall out the round. This fight likely sees the ground repeatedly, especially if Charles takes a more offensive wrestling style as he did in his last match-up with Michael Chandler.
For Ilia, this is a big test for sure, though, new weight class, new veteran, and Charles is the first elite fighter Ilia will face that is truly dangerous in the first few rounds. As incredible as Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski are, they have more volume-centred striking styles, which give a big hitter like Ilia time to work.
Prediction:
My prediction is (unfortunately) Ilia by TKO, or maybe even submission. The boxing is more than slick enough to hit him and the power enough to drop him, and I think Illia is smart enough to tentatively push the grappling too, not allowing Charles to recover. Since Charles will be a more dangerous opponent to press towards the cage as Ilia likes to do, it could serve him well to throw longer combinations closer to the centre to create more striking risk out in the open and force him on the back foot. For Charles to win, I think he should throw teeps and knees, NOT flying knees, please, Charlie, as he has in the past against strong boxers, to keep distance while pressuring and to wear on that gas tank. As Ilia pushes back from the cage, Charles should level change wherever possible, and remember he’s the bigger man, so that clinch can be very useful. I would not, however, be surprised if he goes out there and throws heat like the reckless bastard he is. Let’s just hope he swings before he gets swung.
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