After a fairly active season for the UFC‘s 170-pound division, we are back to the starting point. Welterweights are turning back into ‘welterwaits,’ a name that was used as a joke amongst MMA fans during the period, with zero representatives of this weight class top 15 being booked. And although the things are not as bad now, not a single top 5 fighter in this division has a fight scheduled. So what should you do with this division?
Belal Muhammad vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
Is anyone surprised?
From the very moment Bruce Buffer announced “AND NEW!” for the sleepy Mancunians at UFC 304 in July of this year, we all knew who is next in line. Poor Belal hadn’t even celebrated the biggest win of his career and potential upset of the year, when the journalists started asking him about the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Stylistically, this is a very exciting matchup, as the fighters are similar in some aspects, like the elite skills absolutely everywhere a mixed martial arts bout could go, but also have some differences in others, like in the finishing ability. Just like that, Shavkat has 100% finish rate, while the champion is sitting at a shy 25% in his overall career, and 20% in the UFC.
Is that necessarily a disadvantage for Muhammad? No.
Rakhmonov has been in the third round only twice in his 18-fight run, while the Palestinian has gone full five rounds three times, and the vast majority of his three-round bouts have gotten to the final bell. Belal’s cardio is way more proven, which is huge in a championship level fight. And yes, Rakhmonov is, as already mentioned, a brilliant finisher with an ability to make the referee pull him away from his opponent at all the times. I just don’t see Muhammad being a walkover for the Kazakh, since he hasn’t ever been submitted, and I also don’t recall him even getting rocked in the octagon after their anticlimactic first fight against Leon Edwards.
The most logical card to put this title fight would be either UFC 310 or UFC 311, as that will be the two last pay-per-view events before Ramadan. Both Muslim fighters have proven before that they are real professionals and can go through a training camp even while fasting, but having them at their best is obviously a better option.
Leon Edwards vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Leon Edwards needs to showcase if he should really stay in the division’s title contention after getting dethroned his previous time out. Jack Della Maddalena is a threatening matchup for the former champ — exactly what he needs right now.
That being strikers clash, Edwards and Della represent different sides of the standup art. Jack Della Maddalena is a boxing-heavy fighter with tons of output going forward, pulling pro boxer like combos in the cage. Edwards is way more cool-headed with his style, working mostly at kickboxing distance, with ‘one-two-kick’ being the height of his combinational work. What is also interesting, is that Edwards is not great at dealing with pressure, whereas Jack is great at putting this pressure on people. The Australian will not have the same type of takedown threat that Muhammad or even Usman had. Although, as per UFC Stats website, he has more significant strikes landed per minute on average than both of them, sitting at 6.74, while Muhammad has 4.39, Usman 4.36, and Edwards himself has 2.68. Edwards’ main weapon has always been his precision and the textbook kickboxing style. When in a close range with “Rocky,” you should never forget about his short clinch elbows with which he bloodied Nate Diaz and dropped Gunnar Nelson.
This would be an eye-catching addition to any pay-per-view pretty much everywhere around the world, since these are European and Australian competitors, who both have also fought in the US and, interestingly enough, in Singapore.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Kamaru Usman
A great win over Stephen Thompson on the UFC 307 card, and massively improved callout game, made Joaquin Buckley the most obvious choice to matchup Kamaru Usman with. Buckley is on a five-fight winning streak in the division, whilst Usman has three straight losses, still remaining a top three welterweight according to the rankings.
This is such a crazy fight to imagine, since it’s hard to see how their styles would work against each other. Usman and Buckley are athletic units, with Usman (37 y.o.) being seven years older than Buckley (30 y.o.). The momentum is all for “Newmansa” here, however it will be a massive bump up in competition for him to face a former hegemon of the weight class right after a masterful striker, yet one-dimensional mixed martial artist Thompson. Buckley might want to put the maximum boxing pressure on Kamaru from the very beginning to use the age gap for his advantage, and get in the pocket with the Nigerian, avoiding the crushing jab. Usman, on the other hand, should keep the striking at a longer range, and when the opponent is getting close look for the opportunity to clinch and tire him up. Seeing that Buckley’s takedown defense stat is below 70%, Kamaru is likely to bring the fight to the ground at some point. From there, it is a known route to the decision victory for the former champ.
That matchup looks interesting in three-round and five-round format. I’d definitely prefer it to be a crowded Fight Night main event at the beginning of 2025, somewhere in St. Louis or Texas.
Colby Covington vs. Ian Machado Garry
The beef is there for Colby Covington and Ian Machado Garry, as it started almost a year ago when the whole MMA community was invested in Garry’s family situation. Colby, being the character he is, brought it up at the UFC 296 press conference, getting the biggest reaction that day. So, right after a loss to the champion, Covington decided to double down on that shtick, and Garry was actively responding. That will surely lead to the announcement of the fight between those two, right?
Well, not really.
The fight was not signed then, which was the reason Covington was named a duck by nearly everyone on the internet. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have any hope for this matchup now.
As for the fight itself, Machado Garry never faced the level of wrestler Covington is. The Irishman used offensive grappling in his latest outing against Michael Page, but nothing in his career so far is telling me he is great defensively, since he mostly fought strikers in his UFC run. If Colby could come back even half a fighter he was on his prime, he has the ability to put the pressure “The Future” has never faced before. But if the American is going to show up like he did in the fight against Leon Edwards, just standing around, he will be a painfully easy target for the slick Ian Machado Garry.
This would’ve been an ideal co-main event for the McGregor card, but when an event like that happens, or if it happens at all, is a mystery. Let’s just hope Covington vs. Machado Garry gets booked until the end of the year, so UFC 309 at MSG, or UFC 310 at the T-Mobile Arena.
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