Pastors and Artists
Occasionally, an underappreciated banger emerges from the contractual minimalism of a UFC Fight Night. On 10th August 2024, in Las Vegas, submission specialist Allan Nascimento (20-6-0) will face off against the prolific back-taker Jafel Filho (16-3-0) to kick off the main card of Tybura vs. Spivac II.
A standard on-paper view might mistake the Brazilian flags and grappling-heavy approach for a bout of two very similar fighters. Nascimento could be Filho in a parallel universe and vice versa.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
While skilled in similar areas, their paths to victory will clash in a technical to-and-fro. The mixture of these two athletes almost demands that creativity and an exciting pace will decide the winner.
Allan ‘Puro Osso’ Nascimento
Nascimento, fighting out of São Paulo’s Chute Boxe, aims to extend his two-fight win streak and steal a spot in the UFC flyweight division’s top fifteen rankings.
Since his Octagon debut in 2021, Nascimento has always delivered thrilling performances. A strong debut against Tagir Ulanbekov and a first-round submission win over Carlos Hernandez are enough to convince any grappling-sceptic that excitement is never limited to striking.
Let it be known, Nascimento is a seasoned defensive grappler who is happy to fight off of his back – he has never been submitted in a professional bout. Constant submission threats are sharpened into a double-edged sword. Fail to defend and risk the tap or defend well and lose the position. The result of this tactic? Eleven of Nascimento’s fourteen submissions come in the first round.
Naturally then, it is no surprise that Nascimento is often cornered by fellow Chute Boxe phenom Charles Oliveira. Whether standing or on the ground, Nascimento carries the same signature pace and diversity common to fighters with the São Paulo flair. Visually, this includes the same front kick that has been bruising diaphragms across the lightweight division for a while now.
Jafel ‘Pastor’ Filho
Fighting out of Rio de Janeiro’s Nova União gym, Filho also looks to extend his two-fight win-streak in the UFC.
All it takes is a quick scan of Filho’s record to see his dedication to finishing fights. Out of sixteen wins, Filho has a 94% finish rate, with almost all his submissions coming in the first round.
The ‘Pastor’ first cut his teeth in Brazilian promotions such as Shooto Brazil and Sao Francisco Fight. During these years, Filho’s near refusal to go to a decision earnt him a reputation that secured a 2023 chance on Dana White’s Contender Series. The Brazilian was quickly signed to the UFC after knocking out Roybert Echeverria in round three.
Yet Filho’s rise was hindered by the UK fan favourite Muhammad Mokaev. While his record shows a submission loss (neck crank), Filho’s ligament-tearing kneebar shocked audiences as eight audible cracks came from Mokaev’s leg. Since then, Filho has delivered back-to-back finishes, submitting Daniel Barez and Ode Osbourne in the first round.
Filho provides knock-out victories every three/four fights with a spooky clockwork consistency. Of course, the level of competition is higher in the UFC, but with several TKO-worthy moments and a Bible at cage side, the ‘Pastor’ is cruising towards a stunningly divine knockout any day now.
Exploiting the Cage
The first crucial factor will be the cage. If a grappling exchange happens against the fence, expect Filho to prioritise securing the back with a body lock. In his last bout, Filho used the body lock to stop Osbourne from turning into the fence to escape, a technique that troubled Nascimento against Ulanbekov as two body-lock takedowns landed in the first round.
In general, Nascimento prefers to avoid the cage – against Jake Hadley, the pair barely even touched the cage. This plays to Filho’s advantage when we remember that most of his takedowns come against the fence – the first domino in Barez’s demise and a staple since his early Shooto career.
If we want to be really pedantic, Nascimento did use a whizzer grip to stop Ulanbekov’s double-leg takedowns against the cage. Take from this what you will, but one isolated incident might not be enough to ensure technical success against Filho.
Despite this, Nascimento’s dominant guard-play could be advantageous, as he often invites opportunities to take the fight to the ground. These takedowns are, in some ways, to his benefit. Yet, this depends on where the takedown ends. If Filho takes his back against the cage, Nascimento is at a disadvantage. With seven rear-naked chokes under his belt, Filho’s experience on the back parallels the opponents that gave Nascimento great difficulty.
The Decisive Duality of Distance
The battle of distance will be equally decisive in this fight as the two opponents could not be more distinct from each other in this regard.
Nascimento prefers to keep distance in grappling exchanges, using high hips from the top to drive into the opponent’s upper body, pinning them to the mat.
In contrast, Filho is a tighter, more methodical grappler. He consistently uses underhooks from the top position to restrict his opponent’s movement, as seen in his early career win against Vugner Silva.
Nascimento’s constant movement on the ground will undoubtedly make him the more disturbing force of the two. Expect to see a see-saw motion in his grappling as high hips drop to secure the lower body while his head postures to throw strikes or fight for hand control. Either the head is all the way up and the hips are down, or the complete opposite will be the case. This gives exchanges the free-flowing spontaneity for Nascimento’s flash transitions to surprise.
In a more controlling mindset, Filho works towards rear-naked chokes and arm triangles with a methodical mindset once a dominant position is secured. His patience in securing positions is clearest in his underhooks and strategic head placement, a style that puts control before spontaneity.
How to deal with this from Filho’s perspective? A textbook response would be to push down on Nascimento’s head from the bottom – that is, if Filho can keep it still for long enough. Few fighters can claim they have.
Instead, Filho might mimic Ulanbekov and prioritise half-guard from top-position, limiting Nascimento’s offense to rolls and kimuras. Or, if movement is the problem, Filho could use his underhooks to limit available angles.
For Nascimento, the strategy is simple: avoid getting too comfortable playing guard. Filho’s main threats come from the top position, with only one submission victory off his back – a triangle choke in his 2012 pro debut. If Nascimento can secure top position, his see-saw movement might expose Filho’s lack of striking or submission threats from the bottom, giving him a significant advantage.
Hands, Hooks and Heels
Nascimento’s weakness for left hooks became clearest in Rizin. As fatigue sets in, certain defensive habits, such as his right-side guard, start to fall away.
Worryingly, Filho consistently lands the left hook – felling both Barez and Silva with the strike. Across the years, lone overhands have grown into sharper hook-straight combos at the UFC level. Hence why the opening of any Filho round always paints the picture of a striking enthusiast; someone who takes the centre with constant kicks to the legs and body.
However, it will undoubtedly become clear mid-way through the round that striking at distance is not one of Filho’s judge-convincing strengths. Opponents have had reliable success when it comes to charging through low kicks with punches; either that or his heel gets caught. Of course, the whole ritual is only complete when a wide blink of surprise is followed by the same outside low kick again. All in all, it usually takes a few nose-bound punches to convince Filho to abandon the tactic.
Here, the dynamic shifts. Nascimento furiously takes opportunities off of kicks, sweeping Hadley and Motoya’s legs and using them to disguise takedowns against Hernandez. Solid parries and catches could replicate Mokaev’s success versus Filho – single-leg takedowns. This is where Nascimento’s striking advantage increases dramatically.
Looting the Flyweight Fallout
The winner of Nascimento vs. Filho will soon enter the top fifteen with two advantages. Firstly, in a division that cuts ‘boring’ fighters at a high rate, their marketability as entertaining competitors will play in their favour.
Secondly, the space created by Mokaev’s departure gives Ulanbekov, Tatsuro Taira and Steve Erceg the chance to make their upcoming fights count. This gold rush and its fall-out will likely create fresh match-ups in the upper rankings that either Brazilian will be ready to exploit.
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