Ilia Topuria’s recent move to lightweight has generated considerable discussion, particularly regarding a matchup with former champion Charles Oliveira. With Topuria eyeing a title shot against the 155 champion and pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev, but Makhachev possibly moving up in weight or favoring a different challenger, a bout between Topuria and Oliveira could serve as a legitimate title eliminator. This fight could be an intriguing stylistic clash between two elite fighters with well-rounded skill sets but distinct strengths and weaknesses.
Topuria (16-0) is an undefeated fighter with a highly refined skill set. His boxing is among the sharpest in the lower weight classes, displaying tight combinations, precise shot selection, and legitimately nuclear knockout power. While his grappling is rooted in wrestling and strong top control, he has also shown submission awareness, though he rarely relies on his jiu-jitsu offensively. His durability and composure under fire make him an imposing force, but a transition to lightweight raises questions. While Topuria has competed at 155 pounds before, he will be physically smaller than most elite lightweights. His ability to impose his power against larger, more durable opponents remains untested at the highest level.
Oliveira (35-10), on the other hand, is a battle-tested veteran and the UFC’s all-time leader in submission finishes. His offensive jiu-jitsu is arguably the most dangerous in MMA, capable of capitalizing on even minor positional errors. Striking-wise, he has evolved into a dangerous pressure fighter, utilizing sharp knees, elbows, and a high-volume, aggressive approach. However, Oliveira’s durability has been inconsistent. While he often recovers well from adversity, he has been dropped multiple times and has accumulated significant mileage over the years. His ability to absorb damage against a precision striker like Topuria is a key concern.
From a strategic standpoint, Topuria’s path to victory would revolve around closing the distance effectively while avoiding extended exchanges at kicking range. Oliveira’s reach advantage and diverse striking arsenal, including his teep kicks and body work, could trouble Topuria early. However, Oliveira’s striking defense remains porous, often leaving his chin exposed during aggressive exchanges. If Topuria can maintain his signature forward pressure, avoid being baited into wild exchanges, and land his powerful combinations, he has a legitimate chance of knocking Oliveira out.
For Oliveira, the key to victory lies in keeping Topuria at range with kicks, forcing him into reactive exchanges where Oliveira can capitalize with knees or clinch work. Given Topuria’s grappling background, Oliveira may not find it easy to secure traditional takedowns, but if the fight scrambles to the mat, Oliveira’s submission game is always a threat. Additionally, Oliveira’s high-pace style and ability to create chaos could force Topuria into deeper waters, testing his cardio and composure against a relentless attack.
Overall, this fight is a compelling clash between a surging, undefeated contender and a seasoned former champion. Topuria’s power, precision, and youth give him a 60-40 edge, but Oliveira’s experience, size, and submission threats make this a highly competitive matchup. If Topuria can maintain discipline, he has the tools to secure a victory, but Oliveira remains a dangerous test for any opponent at 155 pounds.
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